Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on November 10?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $120 held · ended Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$120.12

Combined PnL

-$15.36

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 99.8¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$115.69

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$4.59

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.43

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$19.95

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$39.32	$39.92	+$0.6	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$49.96	$35.88	+$2.6	53% 325-288 (613)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$13.65	$14.79	+$1.14	84% 481-91 (572)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.91	$9.99	+$0.08	79% 231-63 (294)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$8.19	$8.22	+$0.03	36% 262-468 (730)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.07	$5.14	+$0.07	43% 225-304 (529)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$23.56	$4.28	-$19.28	28% 209-544 (753)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$1.67	$1.75	+$0.08	36% 254-444 (698)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$0.64	$0.12	-$0.52	54% 70-60 (130)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.18	$0.03	-$0.16	38% 575-934 (1509)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.32

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$49.96

Value

$35.88

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.65

Value

$14.79

PnL

+$1.14

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

79%

231-63 (294)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$0.03

Record

36%

262-468 (730)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.07

Record

43%

225-304 (529)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.56

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$19.28

Record

28%

209-544 (753)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

254-444 (698)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.52

Record

54%

70-60 (130)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

575-934 (1509)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.