Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 19¢ · $251 held · ends Nov 1

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$251.01

Combined PnL

-$13.64

Smart Money Entry

16.5¢ → 19¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$169.53

Total Shares942

Combined PnL-$14.27

No2 traders

Total Value$81.48

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$0.63

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$128.46	$125.28	-$27.54	47% 695-778 (1473)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 81¢	$48.6	$48.6	+$1.8	54% 460-387 (847)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$27.29	$44.25	+$13.27	59% 1908-1339 (3247)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$34.05	$32.88	-$1.17	50% 1895-1867 (3762)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.46

Value

$125.28

PnL

-$27.54

Record

47%

695-778 (1473)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$48.6

Value

$48.6

PnL

+$1.8

Record

54%

460-387 (847)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.29

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$13.27

Record

59%

1908-1339 (3247)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$34.05

Value

$32.88

PnL

-$1.17

Record

50%

1895-1867 (3762)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.