Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 1?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $16 held · ended Sep 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$15.64
$-3.2K
77.5¢ → 75¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 noosh3<$100 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $12.6 | $15.64 | -$12.6 | 52% 281-260 (541) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Noavg 77.6¢ | $3.2K | — | $-3.2K | 54% 1146-975 (2121) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.