Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 30¢ · $223 held · ends Oct 31

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$223.3

Combined PnL

$20.65

Smart Money Entry

25.3¢ → 29.5¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$166.93

Total Shares546

Combined PnL+$21.53

No2 traders

Total Value$56.37

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$0.89

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$134.4	$158.22	+$23.82	47% 628-714 (1342)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75¢	$51.5	$50	-$1.18	21% 295-1086 (1381)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74¢	$6.08	$6.37	+$0.29	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$5.2	$4.5	-$0.7	18% 525-2348 (2873)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$5.8	$4.21	-$1.59	50% 1747-1730 (3477)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$134.4

Value

$158.22

PnL

+$23.82

Record

47%

628-714 (1342)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$51.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.18

Record

21%

295-1086 (1381)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.08

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$0.29

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

18%

525-2348 (2873)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$1.59

Record

50%

1747-1730 (3477)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.