Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 29?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 32¢ · $362 held · ends Oct 29

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$361.73

Combined PnL

$4.65

Smart Money Entry

25.8¢ → 31.5¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$72.76

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$1.22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$136.81

Total Shares507

Combined PnL+$5.87

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$153.7	$152	-$1.22	28% 280-709 (989)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.6¢	$114.87	$110.96	-$3.94
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$38.32	$41.04	+$2.72
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$73.98	$72.76	-$1.22	50% 1642-1626 (3268)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$61.87	$72.69	+$10.82	51% 577-548 (1125)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.1¢	$69.07	$64.12	-$4.94	62% 1433-872 (2305)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$153.7

Value

$152

PnL

-$1.22

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

Both legs:

No$114.8775.6¢-$3.94

Yes$38.3225.2¢+$2.72

hello.67<$100

Invested

$73.98

Value

$72.76

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

1642-1626 (3268)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.87

Value

$72.69

PnL

+$10.82

Record

51%

577-548 (1125)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.07

Value

$64.12

PnL

-$4.94

Record

62%

1433-872 (2305)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.