Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 28?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 43¢ · $780 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$779.74
$30.83
43.5¢ → 43¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 55.7¢ | $354.41 | $331.01 | -$5.11 | 32% 273-576 (849) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $245.3 | $277.18 | +$31.88 | 52% 560-523 (1083) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 51.2¢ | $121.01 | $92.2 | +$3.99 | 53% 6233-5470 (11703) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $48.08 | $49.05 | +$0.98 | 61% 1527-966 (2493) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $31.2 | $30.3 | -$0.9 | 61% 20510-12860 (33370) |
IstarothInvested
$354.41
Value
$331.01
PnL
-$5.11
Record
32%
273-576 (849)
Invested
$245.3
Value
$277.18
PnL
+$31.88
Record
52%
560-523 (1083)
Invested
$121.01
Value
$92.2
PnL
+$3.99
Record
53%
6233-5470 (11703)
Invested
$48.08
Value
$49.05
PnL
+$0.98
Record
61%
1527-966 (2493)
balthazar<$100Invested
$31.2
Value
$30.3
PnL
-$0.9
Record
61%
20510-12860 (33370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.