Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 8?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 28¢ · $128 held · ended Nov 8

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$127.73

Combined PnL

$26.18

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$90.76

Total Shares261

Combined PnL+$25.25

Yes5 traders

Total Value$36.97

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$0.93

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 39.1¢	$62.01	$49.9	-$12.11	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$21.2	$20	-$0.2	13% 603-4221 (4824)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$15.86	$16.2	+$0.34	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$6.32	$7.51	+$1.18	62% 697-436 (1133)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$5.02	$6.81	+$1.79	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$5.73	$5.92	+$0.19	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$4.71	$5.4	+$0.7	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 61.7¢	$4.89	$5.07	+$0.18	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$3.12	$3.27	+$0.15	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$3.12	$3.23	+$0.1	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 2.5¢	$1.28	$2.38	+$34.16	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$3.57	$1.46	-$0.23	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$0.66	$0.59	-$0.07	53% 8890-8041 (16931)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$62.01

Value

$49.9

PnL

-$12.11

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$15.86

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0.34

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$1.18

Record

62%

697-436 (1133)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$1.79

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.15

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.1

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$34.16

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.