Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 8?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $308 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$307.83
$3.48
95.4¢ → 98.8¢
+4% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | No | $98.38 | $98.38 | +$0 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $75.51 | $78.81 | +$3.26 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $41.58 | $41.48 | -$0.1 | 41% 2520-3700 (6220) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $28.31 | $28.53 | +$0.22 | 46% 3898-4513 (8411) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $19.12 | $19.11 | -$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $17.27 | $15.09 | +$0.35 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $10.45 | $10.35 | -$0.1 | 44% 2445-3051 (5496) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.84 | $9.74 | -$0.1 | 36% 1206-2165 (3371) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $9.99 | $5.01 | -$0.06 | 47% 2105-2397 (4502) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $1.31 | $1.32 | +$0.01 | 39% 1311-2070 (3381) |
Invested
$98.38
Value
$98.38
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$75.51
Value
$78.81
PnL
+$3.26
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
Invested
$41.58
Value
$41.48
PnL
-$0.1
Record
41%
2520-3700 (6220)
Invested
$28.31
Value
$28.53
PnL
+$0.22
Record
46%
3898-4513 (8411)
Invested
$19.12
Value
$19.11
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
Invested
$17.27
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$0.35
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$10.45
Value
$10.35
PnL
-$0.1
Record
44%
2445-3051 (5496)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.1
Record
36%
1206-2165 (3371)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$0.06
Record
47%
2105-2397 (4502)
Invested
$1.31
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.01
Record
39%
1311-2070 (3381)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
godblessme2026
No — $98.38
Lucerys
No — $78.81
123987456
No — $41.48
haveagoodday
No — $28.53
qwen300.fund
No — $19.11
ghorrock
No — $15.09
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $10.35
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $9.74
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $5.01
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $1.32