Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 8?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $293 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$293.27
-$0.56
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $158.01 | $157.77 | -$0.24 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $104.8 | $104.48 | -$0.33 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.36 | $19.38 | +$0.02 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | No | $11.63 | $11.63 | +$0 | 36% 1206-2165 (3371) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.03 | $0.02 | -$0.01 | 38% 2430-3890 (6320) |
LucerysInvested
$158.01
Value
$157.77
PnL
-$0.24
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
Invested
$104.8
Value
$104.48
PnL
-$0.33
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
Invested
$19.36
Value
$19.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
Invested
$11.63
Value
$11.63
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
1206-2165 (3371)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
2430-3890 (6320)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.