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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 8?

Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$19.47

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares239

Combined PnL-$19.47

No9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$16.36	43% 5572-7255 (12827)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.3	—	-$0.3	22% 3414-11955 (15369)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.06	—	-$1.64	21% 608-2274 (2882)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	—	-$1.17	47% 47428-53893 (101321)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35457-83867 (119324)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18536-24186 (42722)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2855-6557 (9412)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	—	—	+$0	35% 1158-2115 (3273)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	55% 25558-21177 (46735)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	40% 3999-6085 (10084)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	37% 16937-29299 (46236)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	—	—	+$0	42% 15337-20800 (36137)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	—	—	+$0	69% 16764-7368 (24132)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	50% 9328-9390 (18718)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2943-6806 (9749)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6642-7775 (14417)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$16.36

Record

43%

5572-7255 (12827)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

—

PnL

-$0.3

Record

22%

3414-11955 (15369)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

—

PnL

-$1.64

Record

21%

608-2274 (2882)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0

Value

—

PnL

-$1.17

Record

47%

47428-53893 (101321)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35457-83867 (119324)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2855-6557 (9412)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1158-2115 (3273)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

25558-21177 (46735)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

3999-6085 (10084)

god83743894<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

16937-29299 (46236)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

15337-20800 (36137)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

16764-7368 (24132)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9328-9390 (18718)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2943-6806 (9749)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6642-7775 (14417)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe830785b...89ad21

Slug

highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8-2026-54-55f

Traders in this Market

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Yes — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

No — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

anothercoin

Yes — $0

graynotebook19

No — $0

haveagoodday

No — $0

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