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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 51°F or below on November 8?

Resolved No. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0

Combined PnL

-$31.62

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares372
Combined PnL-$31.62
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 91%No — 9%
0X
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$20.36

Record

43%

5572-7255 (12827)

NO
northdrawerCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$7.1

Value

—

PnL

-$7.1

Record

54%

25722-21534 (47256)

LU
luciebotCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

—

PnL

-$0.3

Record

22%

3414-11955 (15369)

QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0

Value

—

PnL

-$1.77

Record

47%

47428-53893 (101321)

0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

—

PnL

-$1.64

Record

21%

608-2274 (2882)

AN
anothercoinCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

—

PnL

-$0.45

Record

35%

1158-2115 (3273)

balthazarCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35457-83867 (119324)

LucerysCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18536-24186 (42722)

GO
godblessme2026CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

15337-20800 (36137)

MI
mildwindow27<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

24093-24636 (48729)

12
123987456CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2943-6806 (9749)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x813772ef...74a5ff
Slug
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8-2026-51forbelow

Traders in this Market

0X

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

CTR

Yes — $0

-$20.36
NO

northdrawer

CTR

Yes — $0

-$7.1
LU

luciebot

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.3
QW

qwen300.fund

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.77
0X

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.64
AN

anothercoin

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.45

balthazar

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0

Lucerys

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
GO

godblessme2026

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
MI

mildwindow27

No — $0

+$0
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