Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 7?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 5.0¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 7

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$128.93

Combined PnL

-$1.9

Smart Money Entry

33.9¢ → 5¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$90.65

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$113.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$38.27

Total Shares548

Combined PnL-$115

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$36.28	$38.9	+$12.01	58% 21328-15480 (36808)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$152.49	$37.13	-$115.35	38% 859-1414 (2273)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$2.35	$25.96	+$101.59	44% 2310-2928 (5238)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$17.17	$20.15	-$0.72	62% 658-398 (1056)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$5.43	$5.64	+$0.21	42% 2362-3236 (5598)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.26	$0.84	+$0.58	28% 2863-7356 (10219)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$0.53	$0.3	-$0.23	53% 8602-7678 (16280)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$36.28

Value

$38.9

PnL

+$12.01

Record

58%

21328-15480 (36808)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$152.49

Value

$37.13

PnL

-$115.35

Record

38%

859-1414 (2273)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$101.59

Record

44%

2310-2928 (5238)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$17.17

Value

$20.15

PnL

-$0.72

Record

62%

658-398 (1056)

123987456<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.64

PnL

+$0.21

Record

42%

2362-3236 (5598)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.58

Record

28%

2863-7356 (10219)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

8602-7678 (16280)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.3%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1491.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

1591.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.