Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on November 6?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.59

Combined PnL

-$40.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.59

Total Shares1,185

Combined PnL-$40.25

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$10.09	$0.24	-$9.86	40% 851-1275 (2126)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$9.7	$0.16	-$9.54	71% 13951-5591 (19542)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$6.12	$0.07	-$7.48	13% 547-3612 (4159)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$2.27	$0.04	-$2.23	30% 475-1117 (1592)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.37	$0.02	-$1.35	53% 12575-10982 (23557)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.91	$0.02	-$4	31% 510-1143 (1653)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$2.71	47% 10379-11845 (22224)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$1.04	$0.01	-$1.03	37% 4059-6782 (10841)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.85	$0.01	-$2.06	31% 519-1157 (1676)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.09

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$9.86

Record

40%

851-1275 (2126)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.7

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$9.54

Record

71%

13951-5591 (19542)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.12

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.48

Record

13%

547-3612 (4159)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.23

Record

30%

475-1117 (1592)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.35

Record

53%

12575-10982 (23557)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4

Record

31%

510-1143 (1653)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

47%

10379-11845 (22224)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.03

Record

37%

4059-6782 (10841)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.06

Record

31%

519-1157 (1676)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.