Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 16?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$47.16

Combined PnL

-$44.13

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$46.93

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares472

Combined PnL-$44.15

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$46.9	$46.93	+$0.02	49% 844-877 (1721)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.54	$0.11	-$20.43	54% 1125-972 (2097)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.91	$0.04	-$6.87	52% 936-867 (1803)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.73	$0.03	-$4.71	53% 2343-2099 (4442)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.56	$0.02	-$5.86	35% 3888-7213 (11101)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.14	$0.02	-$3.12	26% 600-1738 (2338)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	37% 305-523 (828)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1617-2828 (4445)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$46.9

Value

$46.93

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.54

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$20.43

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.91

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.87

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.71

Record

53%

2343-2099 (4442)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.56

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.86

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.14

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.12

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1617-2828 (4445)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.