Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 16?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$206.43

Combined PnL

-$25.29

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$204.62

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$1.83

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.81

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$23.47

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$64.7	$48.48	-$1.5	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$46.76	$46.64	-$0.12	58% 726-520 (1246)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$34.36	$34.28	-$0.09	26% 550-1579 (2129)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.94	$19.89	-$0.05	43% 5075-6628 (11703)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.77	$19.72	-$0.05	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$17.12	$17.11	-$0.01	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$15.58	$15.57	-$0.01	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.93	$2.93	-$0	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.54	$1.47	-$19.07	55% 1097-903 (2000)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.73	$0.34	-$4.4	55% 2291-1902 (4193)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$64.7

Value

$48.48

PnL

-$1.5

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$46.76

Value

$46.64

PnL

-$0.12

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$34.36

Value

$34.28

PnL

-$0.09

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

5075-6628 (11703)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.77

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.12

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.58

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.54

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$19.07

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$4.4

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.