Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 16?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $599 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$599
-$0.8
86.1¢ → 85¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $495.88 | $495.36 | -$0.52 | 62% 1134-699 (1833) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $29.33 | $29.67 | +$0.34 | 26% 550-1579 (2129) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $20.23 | $19.6 | -$0.63 | 52% 1721-1568 (3289) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.67 | $17.07 | +$0.4 | 53% 7060-6194 (13254) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $14.78 | $14.61 | -$0.17 | 49% 789-829 (1618) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $12.32 | $12.17 | -$0.14 | 51% 809-769 (1578) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.25 | -$0.05 | 37% 1532-2611 (4143) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $3.66 | $3.66 | -$0 | 63% 741-442 (1183) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $2.63 | $2.6 | -$0.03 | 49% 758-801 (1559) |
Invested
$495.88
Value
$495.36
PnL
-$0.52
Record
62%
1134-699 (1833)
Invested
$29.33
Value
$29.67
PnL
+$0.34
Record
26%
550-1579 (2129)
Invested
$20.23
Value
$19.6
PnL
-$0.63
Record
52%
1721-1568 (3289)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$17.07
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
7060-6194 (13254)
Invested
$14.78
Value
$14.61
PnL
-$0.17
Record
49%
789-829 (1618)
Invested
$12.32
Value
$12.17
PnL
-$0.14
Record
51%
809-769 (1578)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1532-2611 (4143)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$3.66
PnL
-$0
Record
63%
741-442 (1183)
Invested
$2.63
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
758-801 (1559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
vibing123
No — $495.36
kaxel78
No — $29.67
ghorrock
No — $19.6
cigarettes
No — $17.07
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $14.61
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $12.17
anothercoin
No — $4.25
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $3.66
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $2.6