Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 16?

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 51¢ · $548 held · ends Nov 16

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

Total Value

$548.19

Combined PnL

$118.76

Smart Money Entry

22.7¢ → 50.5¢

+123% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$337.12

Total Shares812

Combined PnL+$160.98

No11 traders

Total Value$211.07

Total Shares471

Combined PnL-$42.22

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 24¢	$179.72	$305.43	+$125.71	55% 1097-903 (2000)
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 58.2¢	$167.03	$123.41	-$43.62	62% 1134-699 (1833)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$23.1	$24.25	+$1.16	49% 789-829 (1618)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.73	$21.35	+$16.62	55% 2291-1902 (4193)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$15.87	$16.56	+$0.69	26% 550-1579 (2129)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.32	$10.35	+$18.66	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.33	$8.54	-$0.79	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$8.25	$8.34	+$0.09	57% 704-522 (1226)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$7.43	$7.99	+$0.57	65% 4317-2331 (6648)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$6.84	$6.88	+$0.04	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$5.46	$5.52	+$0.06	63% 741-442 (1183)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$4	$3.66	-$0.34	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$3.53	$3.49	-$0.04	50% 723-711 (1434)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.03	37% 1532-2611 (4143)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$179.72

Value

$305.43

PnL

+$125.71

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$167.03

Value

$123.41

PnL

-$43.62

Record

62%

1134-699 (1833)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$24.25

PnL

+$1.16

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$21.35

PnL

+$16.62

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$15.87

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$0.69

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.32

Value

$10.35

PnL

+$18.66

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.33

Value

$8.54

PnL

-$0.79

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$7.43

Value

$7.99

PnL

+$0.57

Record

65%

4317-2331 (6648)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$0.06

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.34

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

37%

1532-2611 (4143)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.