Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 2 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 16?

2 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (12%) · Yes at 34¢ · $621 held · ends Nov 16

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 12%

Total Value

$620.6

Combined PnL

$14.94

Smart Money Entry

33.3¢ → 34¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 17 top traders (12%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$298.12

Total Shares988

Combined PnL-$31.38

No15 traders

Total Value$322.48

Total Shares479

Combined PnL+$46.32

Yes — 12%No — 88%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$180.74	$210.26	+$29.52	55% 1097-903 (2000)
HE hello.67	Noavg 61.7¢	$297.11	$187.5	+$32.58	55% 2291-1902 (4193)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 39.3¢	$148.76	$87.85	-$60.91	62% 1134-699 (1833)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$31.19	$29.85	-$1.34	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 72¢	$24.84	$23.63	-$1.21	26% 550-1579 (2129)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$16.17	$15.37	-$0.8	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 66.6¢	$14.92	$14.67	-$0.24	57% 704-522 (1226)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 76¢	$13.56	$13.47	-$0.09	65% 4317-2331 (6648)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 71¢	$46.11	$10.79	+$12.47	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.36	$4.21	-$0.15	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.57	$3.93	+$1.15	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.68	$3.55	-$0.13	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.64	$3.51	-$0.13	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.66	$3.48	-$0.18	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.23	$3.31	+$0.08	49% 758-801 (1559)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.28	+$0.08	37% 1532-2611 (4143)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 63¢	$14.47	$1.93	+$4.24	43% 5075-6628 (11703)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$180.74

Value

$210.26

PnL

+$29.52

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

hello.67

Invested

$297.11

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$32.58

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$148.76

Value

$87.85

PnL

-$60.91

Record

62%

1134-699 (1833)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.19

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$1.34

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$24.84

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$1.21

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$16.17

Value

$15.37

PnL

-$0.8

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$14.92

Value

$14.67

PnL

-$0.24

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$13.56

Value

$13.47

PnL

-$0.09

Record

65%

4317-2331 (6648)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$46.11

Value

$10.79

PnL

+$12.47

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.36

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.57

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$1.15

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.18

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.08

Record

37%

1532-2611 (4143)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.47

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$4.24

Record

43%

5075-6628 (11703)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 17 top traders (12%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.