Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 16?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$146.47

Combined PnL

-$12.4

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 97.7¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$131.18

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$2.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.29

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$9.98

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$33.75	$32.95	-$0.8	26% 550-1579 (2129)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89¢	$17.8	$18.8	+$1	14% 82-515 (597)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$18.86	$18.66	-$0.2	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97¢	$62.99	$15.04	-$2.59	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$14.03	$13.88	-$0.15	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.54	$12.43	-$8.11	55% 1097-903 (2000)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98¢	$11.15	$11.14	-$0.01	49% 758-801 (1559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.4	$8.87	+$0.47	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$4.95	$4.89	-$0.05	37% 1532-2611 (4143)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.13	$4.07	-$0.06	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.91	$2.88	-$0.03	57% 704-522 (1226)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.73	$2.86	-$1.87	55% 2291-1902 (4193)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$33.75

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$0.8

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$1

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.86

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$62.99

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$2.59

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.54

Value

$12.43

PnL

-$8.11

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$11.15

Value

$11.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.87

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1532-2611 (4143)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.91

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$1.87

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.