Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 16?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $162 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$161.69

Combined PnL

-$16.19

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 99.1¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$154.7

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$2.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.99

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$18.91

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$46.56	$46.53	-$0.03	57% 704-522 (1226)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 90¢	$36	$39.24	+$3.24	62% 1134-699 (1833)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$21.37	$21.24	-$0.14	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.65	$19.47	-$0.18	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$14.13	$14.05	-$0.09	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$11.33	$11.27	-$0.07	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.54	$4.29	-$16.25	55% 1097-903 (2000)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.93	$2.91	-$0.02	63% 741-442 (1183)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.63	$1.71	+$1.08	14% 82-515 (597)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.73	$0.99	-$3.74	55% 2291-1902 (4193)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$46.56

Value

$46.53

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$39.24

PnL

+$3.24

Record

62%

1134-699 (1833)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$21.37

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.65

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.13

Value

$14.05

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.33

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.54

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$16.25

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$1.08

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$3.74

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.