Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 16?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$64.69

Combined PnL

-$42.54

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$64.27

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$0

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.42

Total Shares424

Combined PnL-$42.53

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$46.9	$46.9	+$0	47% 881-992 (1873)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.47	$12.47	+$0	49% 844-877 (1721)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.91	$4.9	-$0	50% 912-916 (1828)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.54	$0.23	-$20.31	54% 1125-972 (2097)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.91	$0.08	-$6.83	52% 936-867 (1803)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.73	$0.05	-$4.68	53% 2343-2099 (4442)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.14	$0.03	-$3.1	26% 600-1738 (2338)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.02	-$1.8	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$50.57	$0.02	-$5.81	35% 3888-7213 (11101)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$46.9

Value

$46.9

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.47

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.54

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$20.31

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.91

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.83

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.68

Record

53%

2343-2099 (4442)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.14

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.1

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.8

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.57

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.81

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.