Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $751 held · ends Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$750.56

Combined PnL

$21.38

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 95¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$737.32

Total Shares802

Combined PnL+$26.09

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.24

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$4.71

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 88¢	$494.64	$517.04	+$22.4	61% 1190-746 (1936)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$65.99	$67.06	+$1.06	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$54.4	$56.4	+$2	42% 783-1092 (1875)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$36.34	$35.75	-$0.59	60% 866-583 (1449)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 93¢	$66.59	$21.84	-$1.4	26% 600-1738 (2338)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 93¢	$57.93	$21.73	+$1	35% 3888-7213 (11101)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$16.95	$12.47	-$4.48	68% 89-42 (131)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85¢	$7.72	$5.75	+$1.37	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90¢	$5.12	$5.12	+$0	71% 939-382 (1321)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.74	$4.69	-$0.05	50% 912-916 (1828)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 91¢	$10.11	$1.94	+$0.29	29% 293-715 (1008)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1	$0.77	-$0.23	24% 779-2522 (3301)

vibing123

Invested

$494.64

Value

$517.04

PnL

+$22.4

Record

61%

1190-746 (1936)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$65.99

Value

$67.06

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$54.4

Value

$56.4

PnL

+$2

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$36.34

Value

$35.75

PnL

-$0.59

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$66.59

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$1.4

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$57.93

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$1

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.95

Value

$12.47

PnL

-$4.48

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$1.37

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.29

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.23

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.