Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 28¢ · $781 held · ends Nov 15

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$780.56

Combined PnL

-$153.92

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 28.5¢

-46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$443.86

Total Shares616

Combined PnL+$134.42

No6 traders

Total Value$336.7

Total Shares1,179

Combined PnL-$288.34

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 49.3¢	$271.71	$394.01	+$122.29	54% 1113-942 (2055)
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 54.2¢	$486.31	$255.64	-$230.66	62% 1142-703 (1845)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 50.9¢	$139.48	$43.36	-$37.97	32% 224-485 (709)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$28	$35.75	+$7.75	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$30.8	$17.1	-$13.7	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 38.8¢	$22.11	$16.24	-$5.87	41% 716-1035 (1751)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 46.2¢	$27.68	$14.1	+$4.38	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3	$2.9	-$0.1	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.45	-$0.05	33% 309-636 (945)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$271.71

Value

$394.01

PnL

+$122.29

Record

54%

1113-942 (2055)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$486.31

Value

$255.64

PnL

-$230.66

Record

62%

1142-703 (1845)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$139.48

Value

$43.36

PnL

-$37.97

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$28

Value

$35.75

PnL

+$7.75

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$30.8

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$13.7

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$22.11

Value

$16.24

PnL

-$5.87

Record

41%

716-1035 (1751)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.68

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$4.38

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

33%

309-636 (945)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.