Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 1 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 15?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 24¢ · $432 held · ends Nov 15

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

Total Value

$431.7

Combined PnL

-$225.44

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$224

Total Shares1,400

Combined PnL-$259.07

No10 traders

Total Value$207.69

Total Shares254

Combined PnL+$33.64

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 34.5¢	$483.07	$224	-$259.07	61% 1190-746 (1936)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$49.16	$60.06	+$10.89	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82¢	$32.79	$32.8	+$0.01	71% 939-382 (1321)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.6¢	$79.43	$23.88	+$2.6	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 78¢	$18.48	$19.1	+$0.62	42% 783-1092 (1875)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 79¢	$59.64	$18.9	+$7.16	35% 3888-7213 (11101)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 79¢	$56.56	$18.6	+$13.01	26% 600-1738 (2338)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 79¢	$10.41	$10.21	-$0.2	58% 859-610 (1469)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$10.33	$10.14	-$0.2	52% 936-867 (1803)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 79¢	$10.29	$10.1	-$0.2	52% 900-835 (1735)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.98	$3.9	-$0.08	47% 1230-1384 (2614)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$483.07

Value

$224

PnL

-$259.07

Record

61%

1190-746 (1936)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$49.16

Value

$60.06

PnL

+$10.89

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$32.79

Value

$32.8

PnL

+$0.01

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$79.43

Value

$23.88

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$18.48

Value

$19.1

PnL

+$0.62

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$59.64

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$7.16

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$56.56

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$13.01

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.33

Value

$10.14

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.