Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 14?
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 11%
$145.25
-$58.47
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $144.86 | $144.93 | +$0.07 | 99% 1195-12 (1207) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $20.45 | $0.11 | -$20.34 | 30% 1026-2400 (3426) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $16.34 | $0.09 | -$16.25 | 44% 5031-6456 (11487) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.91 | $0.06 | -$10.85 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.19 | $0.03 | -$5.16 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.02 | -$2.71 | 34% 231-458 (689) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.66 | $0.01 | -$2.42 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 37% 1515-2566 (4081) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.36 | $0 | -$0.36 | 29% 3158-7813 (10971) |
Invested
$144.86
Value
$144.93
PnL
+$0.07
Record
99%
1195-12 (1207)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$20.34
Record
30%
1026-2400 (3426)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.34
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$16.25
Record
44%
5031-6456 (11487)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$10.91
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.85
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Invested
$5.19
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.16
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.71
Record
34%
231-458 (689)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.66
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.42
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
37%
1515-2566 (4081)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.36
Record
29%
3158-7813 (10971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.