Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 14?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $315 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$315.43

Combined PnL

-$9.87

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$314.35

Total Shares316

Combined PnL+$2.12

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.08

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$12

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.8¢	$222.24	$223.65	+$1.41	34% 234-460 (694)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.8	$29.82	+$0.02	27% 1021-2713 (3734)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.88	+$0	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$14.17	$14.91	+$0.74	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$7.16	$7.14	-$0.03	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5.04	$5.05	+$0.01	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.99	$4.98	-$0.01	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.87	$4.86	-$0.01	49% 789-829 (1618)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	99% 1301-18 (1319)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$1.57	$1.57	-$0	26% 692-1921 (2613)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.19	$1.08	-$12	32% 168-365 (533)

quietparcel

Invested

$222.24

Value

$223.65

PnL

+$1.41

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.8

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

27%

1021-2713 (3734)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.17

Value

$14.91

PnL

+$0.74

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1301-18 (1319)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.19

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$12

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.