Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $550 held · ends Nov 14

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$549.69

Combined PnL

$30.34

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 80.8¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$506.57

Total Shares624

Combined PnL+$17.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$43.11

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$13.32

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 76.2¢	$171.46	$182.48	+$11.01	34% 268-522 (790)
HE hello.67	Noavg 74.5¢	$135.76	$147.75	+$11.98	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
VI vibing123	Noavg 84.4¢	$142.62	$137.06	-$5.56	62% 1129-683 (1812)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$265.11	$36.08	+$11.84	55% 1091-888 (1979)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$41.45	$22.99	-$0.23	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$12.29	$12.15	-$0.15	72% 841-329 (1170)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$4.51	$6.06	+$1.55	40% 633-964 (1597)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$4.2	$4.15	-$0.05	63% 720-431 (1151)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$1.03	$0.96	-$0.07	51% 748-722 (1470)

godblessme2026

Invested

$171.46

Value

$182.48

PnL

+$11.01

Record

34%

268-522 (790)

hello.67

Invested

$135.76

Value

$147.75

PnL

+$11.98

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

vibing123

Invested

$142.62

Value

$137.06

PnL

-$5.56

Record

62%

1129-683 (1812)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$265.11

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$11.84

Record

55%

1091-888 (1979)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.45

Value

$22.99

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.29

Value

$12.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.51

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$1.55

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

63%

720-431 (1151)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.5%

80.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.