Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 31¢ · $638 held · ends Nov 14

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$637.88

Combined PnL

$36.49

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 31.3¢

-30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$424.39

Total Shares1,258

Combined PnL-$135.31

Yes4 traders

Total Value$213.5

Total Shares315

Combined PnL+$171.8

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 44.9¢	$485.04	$364.84	-$120.2	62% 1127-679 (1806)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 50.9¢	$122.27	$162.56	+$40.29	55% 1089-876 (1965)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$63.05	$44.97	-$13.08	40% 625-948 (1573)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 54.1¢	$24.47	$30.64	+$6.17	72% 829-328 (1157)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 41¢	$134.98	$17.46	+$70.09	31% 146-327 (473)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 38.3¢	$11.49	$10.13	-$1.37	34% 263-521 (784)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$3.49	$2.88	-$0.62	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$54.49	$2.83	+$55.26	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 32.1¢	$1.62	$1.58	-$0.04	48% 762-815 (1577)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$485.04

Value

$364.84

PnL

-$120.2

Record

62%

1127-679 (1806)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$122.27

Value

$162.56

PnL

+$40.29

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$63.05

Value

$44.97

PnL

-$13.08

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.47

Value

$30.64

PnL

+$6.17

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$134.98

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$70.09

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$11.49

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$1.37

Record

34%

263-521 (784)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.49

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.62

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.49

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$55.26

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.4%

31.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$199.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

299.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.