Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 14?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 13¢ · $651 held · ends Nov 14

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$650.9

Combined PnL

-$209.18

Smart Money Entry

23.5¢ → 13¢

-45% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$448.01

Total Shares488

Combined PnL+$69.73

Yes2 traders

Total Value$202.66

Total Shares2,047

Combined PnL-$278.91

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 78¢	$234	$270.6	+$36.6	25% 45-135 (180)
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 23.6¢	$481.07	$202.16	-$278.91	62% 1129-683 (1812)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$70.05	$70.07	+$0.02	24% 39-122 (161)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$82.92	$42.18	+$6.49	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 76¢	$22.8	$27.06	+$4.26	29% 237-570 (807)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$14.76	$18.04	+$3.28	40% 633-964 (1597)
Haradwaith	Noavg 83.8¢	$120.57	$15.67	+$19.11	31% 157-344 (501)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$4.43	$4.4	-$0.02	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$0.5	$0.5	-$0.01	63% 720-431 (1151)

donthackme

Invested

$234

Value

$270.6

PnL

+$36.6

Record

25%

45-135 (180)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$481.07

Value

$202.16

PnL

-$278.91

Record

62%

1129-683 (1812)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$70.05

Value

$70.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

24%

39-122 (161)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$82.92

Value

$42.18

PnL

+$6.49

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

$27.06

PnL

+$4.26

Record

29%

237-570 (807)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$14.76

Value

$18.04

PnL

+$3.28

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

Haradwaith

Invested

$120.57

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$19.11

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.01

Record

63%

720-431 (1151)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$587.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

687.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.