Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $313 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$313.05

Combined PnL

-$5.95

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 98.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$312.95

Total Shares317

Combined PnL-$0.49

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$5.46

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.3¢	$223.48	$222.53	-$0.96	28% 1020-2626 (3646)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$29.61	$29.67	+$0.06	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$20.94	$21.5	+$0.56	52% 1708-1554 (3262)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$19.78	$19.7	-$0.08	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$7.06	$7.03	-$0.03	58% 725-518 (1243)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.03	$5.02	-$0.01	51% 771-729 (1500)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.03	$5	-$0.03	57% 703-521 (1224)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	99% 1293-18 (1311)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.8	$0.06	-$5.46	43% 5073-6616 (11689)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	46% 1098-1303 (2401)

graynotebook19

Invested

$223.48

Value

$222.53

PnL

-$0.96

Record

28%

1020-2626 (3646)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.61

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$0.06

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.94

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$0.56

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$19.7

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.06

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

771-729 (1500)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

703-521 (1224)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1293-18 (1311)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.8

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.46

Record

43%

5073-6616 (11689)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1098-1303 (2401)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.