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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 14?

Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.01

Combined PnL

-$81.16

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares376

Combined PnL-$60.07

No2 traders

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares0

Combined PnL-$21.09

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.36	—	-$15.36	49% 828-850 (1678)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.69	—	-$5.69	41% 2666-3863 (6529)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$125.09	—	-$16.1	43% 5182-7005 (12187)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.19	—	-$5.19	26% 586-1706 (2292)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.45	—	-$3.64	35% 3865-7146 (11011)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4.93	$0.01	-$1.26	28% 3267-8303 (11570)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.6	—	-$0.6	24% 762-2435 (3197)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.19	—	-$13.04	29% 266-656 (922)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	—	-$0.45	36% 1600-2790 (4390)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.7¢	$224.38	—	-$19.83	31% 1102-2457 (3559)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$15.36

Value

—

PnL

-$15.36

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Invested

$5.69

Value

—

PnL

-$5.69

Record

41%

2666-3863 (6529)

Invested

$125.09

Value

—

PnL

-$16.1

Record

43%

5182-7005 (12187)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$5.19

Value

—

PnL

-$5.19

Record

26%

586-1706 (2292)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$22.45

Value

—

PnL

-$3.64

Record

35%

3865-7146 (11011)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.26

Record

28%

3267-8303 (11570)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.6

Value

—

PnL

-$0.6

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$13.19

Value

—

PnL

-$13.04

Record

29%

266-656 (922)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

—

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1600-2790 (4390)

Invested

$224.38

Value

—

PnL

-$19.83

Record

31%

1102-2457 (3559)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8ea4c655...71549c

Slug

highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-14-2026-40-41f

Traders in this Market

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Yes — $0

e46m3

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

kaxel78

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

No — $0.01

luciebot

Yes — $0

Haradwaith

Yes — $0

anothercoin

Yes — $0

mildwindow27

No — $0

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