Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $165 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$165.2

Combined PnL

-$50.78

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$164.92

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares556

Combined PnL-$50.86

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.92	$84.96	+$0.04	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 1195-12 (1207)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.34	$0.09	-$16.25	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.73	$0.07	-$12.66	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$0.06	-$10.85	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.19	$0.03	-$5.16	26% 548-1574 (2122)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	34% 231-458 (689)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.66	$0.01	-$2.42	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	37% 1515-2566 (4081)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$0	-$0.36	29% 3158-7813 (10971)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$84.92

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.34

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$16.25

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.73

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.66

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.85

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.16

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.66

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.42

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

PnL

-$0.36

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.