Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $177 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$176.9

Combined PnL

-$144.31

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$158.09

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$0.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.81

Total Shares1,791

Combined PnL-$144.04

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$79.84	$79.68	-$0.16	99% 783-8 (791)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$28.73	$28.69	-$0.04	40% 1494-2225 (3719)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$22.24	$22.22	-$0.02	46% 562-657 (1219)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$16.14	$16.11	-$0.02	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$95.63	$11.04	-$84.58	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$67.23	$7.76	-$59.46	58% 1045-765 (1810)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$6.23	$6.23	-$0.01	27% 970-2559 (3529)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.18	$5.17	-$0.01	46% 575-687 (1262)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.84

Value

$79.68

PnL

-$0.16

Record

99%

783-8 (791)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.73

Value

$28.69

PnL

-$0.04

Record

40%

1494-2225 (3719)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$22.24

Value

$22.22

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

562-657 (1219)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.14

Value

$16.11

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.63

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$84.58

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.23

Value

$7.76

PnL

-$59.46

Record

58%

1045-765 (1810)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$6.23

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$0.01

Record

27%

970-2559 (3529)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

575-687 (1262)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.