Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 14¢ · $426 held · ends Nov 13

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$425.65

Combined PnL

$23.94

Smart Money Entry

11.1¢ → 13.6¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$338.16

Total Shares2,842

Combined PnL+$23.87

No4 traders

Total Value$87.49

Total Shares99

Combined PnL+$0.07

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$195.76	$188.82	-$6.94	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$67.23	$96.14	+$28.91	58% 1045-765 (1810)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$46.01	$47.3	+$1.29	37% 457-784 (1241)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$36.56	$37.55	+$0.98	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$25.25	$25.1	-$0.15	27% 970-2559 (3529)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$19.97	$19.41	-$0.56	43% 890-1199 (2089)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$5.63	$5.44	-$0.2	20% 99-387 (486)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$4.76	$5.34	+$0.58	65% 4199-2222 (6421)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$0.53	$0.57	+$0.04	54% 994-856 (1850)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$195.76

Value

$188.82

PnL

-$6.94

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.23

Value

$96.14

PnL

+$28.91

Record

58%

1045-765 (1810)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.01

Value

$47.3

PnL

+$1.29

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.56

Value

$37.55

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$25.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

27%

970-2559 (3529)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$19.97

Value

$19.41

PnL

-$0.56

Record

43%

890-1199 (2089)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$0.2

Record

20%

99-387 (486)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0.58

Record

65%

4199-2222 (6421)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.2%

13.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$559.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

659.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.