Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 13?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 38¢ · $582 held · ends Nov 13

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$581.58

Combined PnL

$288.67

Smart Money Entry

14.2¢ → 38¢

+167% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$500.99

Total Shares1,539

Combined PnL+$292.11

No7 traders

Total Value$80.6

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$3.44

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$218.12	$284.94	+$173.76	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$285.84	$148.73	+$114.47	58% 1038-744 (1782)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$47.61	$44.27	-$3.34	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$22.59	$24.28	+$1.7	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$15.82	$23.04	+$7.22	35% 414-754 (1168)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 62¢	$17.89	$19.04	+$1.15	25% 93-281 (374)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$40.96	$17.31	-$3.8	53% 933-821 (1754)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$13.12	$10.14	-$2.98	76% 675-216 (891)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 57¢	$3.56	$3.75	+$0.19	17% 94-450 (544)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.9	$3.05	+$0.15	62% 472-292 (764)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.87	$3.02	+$0.15	45% 522-645 (1167)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$218.12

Value

$284.94

PnL

+$173.76

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$285.84

Value

$148.73

PnL

+$114.47

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.61

Value

$44.27

PnL

-$3.34

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.59

Value

$24.28

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.82

Value

$23.04

PnL

+$7.22

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$17.89

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$1.15

Record

25%

93-281 (374)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$40.96

Value

$17.31

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

$10.14

PnL

-$2.98

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.19

Record

17%

94-450 (544)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

62%

472-292 (764)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

522-645 (1167)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.