Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 13?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 60¢ · $319 held · ends Nov 13

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$319.41

Combined PnL

$314.2

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 59.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$286.7

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$228.3

Yes2 traders

Total Value$32.71

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$85.9

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 60.8¢	$171.35	$176.08	+$4.74	35% 414-754 (1168)
HE hello.67	Noavg 63¢	$574.02	$39.87	+$223.14	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$557.65	$25.8	+$85.9	58% 1038-744 (1782)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$20.26	$20.49	+$0.24	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 60¢	$17.31	$18.03	+$0.72	17% 94-450 (544)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$20.7	$14.38	-$0.32	53% 933-821 (1754)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$14.12	$13.94	-$0.18	45% 522-645 (1167)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$6.91	$6.91	+$0	76% 675-216 (891)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.94	$3.91	-$0.03	26% 119-337 (456)

241532532432

Invested

$171.35

Value

$176.08

PnL

+$4.74

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

hello.67

Invested

$574.02

Value

$39.87

PnL

+$223.14

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$557.65

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$85.9

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.26

Value

$20.49

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$17.31

Value

$18.03

PnL

+$0.72

Record

17%

94-450 (544)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

$14.38

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.12

Value

$13.94

PnL

-$0.18

Record

45%

522-645 (1167)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.91

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.03

Record

26%

119-337 (456)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.