Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $237 held · ends Nov 13

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$237.31

Combined PnL

$120.3

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 90¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$72.22

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$19.8

No6 traders

Total Value$165.09

Total Shares178

Combined PnL+$140.1

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$455.13	$56.68	+$30.49	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 76.3¢	$627.06	$54.12	+$137.67	58% 1045-765 (1810)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92¢	$48.57	$48.04	-$0.53	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92¢	$32.29	$32.47	+$0.18	26% 890-2526 (3416)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$33.97	$19.94	+$1.78	54% 994-856 (1850)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 29.6¢	$240.83	$15.54	-$50.29	37% 457-784 (1241)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4.73	$5.81	+$1.07	75% 712-239 (951)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$4.79	$4.72	-$0.07	46% 562-657 (1219)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$455.13

Value

$56.68

PnL

+$30.49

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$627.06

Value

$54.12

PnL

+$137.67

Record

58%

1045-765 (1810)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$48.57

Value

$48.04

PnL

-$0.53

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$32.29

Value

$32.47

PnL

+$0.18

Record

26%

890-2526 (3416)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.97

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$1.78

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$240.83

Value

$15.54

PnL

-$50.29

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$1.07

Record

75%

712-239 (951)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

562-657 (1219)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.