Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 13?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $363 held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$363.23

Combined PnL

-$25.38

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 98.2¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$345.45

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$24.1

Yes1 trader

Total Value$17.75

Total Shares740

Combined PnL-$49.48

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 89.3¢	$225.87	$247.18	+$21.31	37% 457-784 (1241)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$41.83	$41.82	-$0.01	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$28.19	$28.32	+$0.13	20% 99-387 (486)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$67.23	$17.75	-$49.48	58% 1045-765 (1810)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$12.23	$13.63	+$1.4	54% 994-856 (1850)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$6.11	$6.11	+$0	27% 110-295 (405)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.13	$5.1	-$0.04	61% 517-328 (845)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86¢	$18.61	$3.3	+$1.31	75% 712-239 (951)

241532532432

Invested

$225.87

Value

$247.18

PnL

+$21.31

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$41.83

Value

$41.82

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.19

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$0.13

Record

20%

99-387 (486)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.23

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$49.48

Record

58%

1045-765 (1810)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.23

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

110-295 (405)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

517-328 (845)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$18.61

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$1.31

Record

75%

712-239 (951)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.