Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on November 12?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $415 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$415.09

Combined PnL

-$55.35

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$414.86

Total Shares415

Combined PnL+$0.21

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares452

Combined PnL-$55.56

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$414.65	$414.86	+$0.21	99% 675-8 (683)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.45	$0.07	-$12.39	47% 544-625 (1169)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.52	$0.05	-$8.47	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.93	$0.04	-$7.88	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$86.47	$0.03	-$15.05	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.7	$0.03	-$10.61	26% 871-2505 (3376)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.72	$0	-$0.72	30% 2961-6982 (9943)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.44	$0	-$0.44	29% 892-2183 (3075)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$414.65

Value

$414.86

PnL

+$0.21

Record

99%

675-8 (683)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.45

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.39

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.52

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.47

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.93

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.88

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.47

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$15.05

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.7

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$10.61

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

PnL

-$0.72

Record

30%

2961-6982 (9943)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

PnL

-$0.44

Record

29%

892-2183 (3075)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.