Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 12?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$200.39

Combined PnL

-$44.71

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$199.82

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$0.1

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.57

Total Shares299

Combined PnL-$44.61

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.84	$159.76	-$0.08	99% 601-5 (606)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.96	-$0.01	26% 116-337 (453)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0	63% 451-268 (719)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.04	$5.04	-$0	42% 814-1136 (1950)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.29	$0.22	-$6.97	47% 521-590 (1111)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.52	$0.14	-$8.38	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.93	$0.13	-$7.8	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$63.62	$0.04	-$10.36	26% 868-2503 (3371)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$91.23	$0.03	-$10.66	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.44	$0.01	-$0.44	29% 892-2174 (3066)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.84

Value

$159.76

PnL

-$0.08

Record

99%

601-5 (606)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

26%

116-337 (453)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

814-1136 (1950)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.29

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$6.97

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.52

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$8.38

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.93

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$7.8

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.62

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$10.36

Record

26%

868-2503 (3371)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.23

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$10.66

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.44

Record

29%

892-2174 (3066)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.