Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 12?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $111 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$111.04
-$14.79
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $94.23 | $77.21 | +$0.75 | 54% 789-676 (1465) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $32.28 | $18.22 | -$14.05 | 65% 2122-1162 (3284) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $8.32 | $8.73 | +$0.41 | 53% 5981-5353 (11334) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $138.09 | $5.99 | -$1.9 | 35% 386-715 (1101) |
Invested
$94.23
Value
$77.21
PnL
+$0.75
Record
54%
789-676 (1465)
Invested
$32.28
Value
$18.22
PnL
-$14.05
Record
65%
2122-1162 (3284)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.73
PnL
+$0.41
Record
53%
5981-5353 (11334)
Invested
$138.09
Value
$5.99
PnL
-$1.9
Record
35%
386-715 (1101)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.