Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 12?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 12

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$134.38

Combined PnL

-$4.31

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$93.22

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$2.2

Yes1 trader

Total Value$41.16

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$6.51

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 77¢	$46.2	$49.2	+$3	25% 845-2482 (3327)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$47.67	$41.16	-$6.51	61% 1144-746 (1890)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$25.34	$23.44	-$1.9	54% 445-377 (822)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78¢	$15.68	$16.48	+$0.8	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.8	$4.1	+$0.3	39% 1259-1997 (3256)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$46.2

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$3

Record

25%

845-2482 (3327)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.67

Value

$41.16

PnL

-$6.51

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.34

Value

$23.44

PnL

-$1.9

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$15.68

Value

$16.48

PnL

+$0.8

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

1259-1997 (3256)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.