Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 53¢ · $212 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$212.06
$59.56
43.6¢ → 53¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 45¢ | $141.74 | $95.48 | +$43.96 | 65% 2122-1162 (3284) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $49.2 | $61.2 | +$12 | 60% 1155-768 (1923) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $42.26 | $37.73 | +$5.61 | 35% 386-715 (1101) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $7.7 | $7.07 | -$0.63 | 53% 5981-5353 (11334) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $30.1 | $6.88 | -$1.9 | 77% 640-194 (834) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $2.3 | $2.83 | +$0.53 | 54% 789-676 (1465) |
Invested
$141.74
Value
$95.48
PnL
+$43.96
Record
65%
2122-1162 (3284)
Invested
$49.2
Value
$61.2
PnL
+$12
Record
60%
1155-768 (1923)
Invested
$42.26
Value
$37.73
PnL
+$5.61
Record
35%
386-715 (1101)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$7.07
PnL
-$0.63
Record
53%
5981-5353 (11334)
Invested
$30.1
Value
$6.88
PnL
-$1.9
Record
77%
640-194 (834)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.83
PnL
+$0.53
Record
54%
789-676 (1465)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.