Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 72¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$103.86
-$1.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $43.8 | $42.6 | -$1.2 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $36.2 | $36.2 | +$0 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $14.67 | $14.27 | -$0.4 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $7.5 | $7.24 | -$0.26 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $3.55 | -$0.1 | 39% 1259-1997 (3256) |
Invested
$43.8
Value
$42.6
PnL
-$1.2
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
Invested
$36.2
Value
$36.2
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.67
Value
$14.27
PnL
-$0.4
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.24
PnL
-$0.26
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.55
PnL
-$0.1
Record
39%
1259-1997 (3256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.