Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$103.14
-$1.42
95.7¢ → 94.8¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $28.47 | $28.32 | -$0.15 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $28.32 | -$0.78 | 22% 78-279 (357) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $28.6 | $28.32 | -$0.28 | 29% 870-2138 (3008) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $13.55 | $13.46 | -$0.08 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.72 | -$0.13 | 39% 1259-1997 (3256) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$28.47
Value
$28.32
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$28.32
PnL
-$0.78
Record
22%
78-279 (357)
Invested
$28.6
Value
$28.32
PnL
-$0.28
Record
29%
870-2138 (3008)
Invested
$13.55
Value
$13.46
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$0.13
Record
39%
1259-1997 (3256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.