Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$182.7
$0.02
99.5¢ → 99¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $98.38 | $97.61 | -$0.77 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $36.29 | $36.03 | -$0.26 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.94 | +$0.03 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $17.95 | $18.39 | +$0.44 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.14 | $0.72 | +$0.58 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$98.38
Value
$97.61
PnL
-$0.77
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
balthazar<$100Invested
$36.29
Value
$36.03
PnL
-$0.26
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.03
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$17.95
Value
$18.39
PnL
+$0.44
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.72
PnL
+$0.58
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.