Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$110.18
-$45.24
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.96 | +$0.04 | 99% 601-5 (606) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 17% 91-447 (538) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.86 | $0.06 | -$10.8 | 37% 3439-5885 (9324) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.52 | $0.05 | -$8.47 | 64% 2127-1183 (3310) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.93 | $0.04 | -$7.88 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $42.47 | $0.04 | -$10.64 | 26% 868-2503 (3371) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $12.16 | $0.04 | -$7.05 | 47% 521-590 (1111) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.44 | $0 | -$0.44 | 29% 892-2174 (3066) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
601-5 (606)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
17%
91-447 (538)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$10.86
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.8
Record
37%
3439-5885 (9324)
Invested
$8.52
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.47
Record
64%
2127-1183 (3310)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.93
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$7.88
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$42.47
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$10.64
Record
26%
868-2503 (3371)
Invested
$12.16
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$7.05
Record
47%
521-590 (1111)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.44
Record
29%
892-2174 (3066)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.