Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $105 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$104.68
-$37.98
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $98.75 | -$1.15 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.86 | $1.49 | -$9.37 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $9.27 | $1.33 | -$7.94 | 26% 866-2483 (3349) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.52 | $1.17 | -$7.35 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.93 | $1.09 | -$6.84 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.73 | $0.79 | -$4.94 | 48% 508-561 (1069) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0.06 | -$0.39 | 40% 1374-2022 (3396) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$98.75
PnL
-$1.15
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$10.86
Value
$1.49
PnL
-$9.37
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$9.27
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$7.94
Record
26%
866-2483 (3349)
Invested
$8.52
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$7.35
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.93
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$6.84
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$5.73
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$4.94
Record
48%
508-561 (1069)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.39
Record
40%
1374-2022 (3396)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.