Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $145 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$145.35
-$0.11
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $82.42 | $82.26 | -$0.16 | 99% 275-2 (277) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $18.75 | $18.77 | +$0.02 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.95 | $15.95 | +$0 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.04 | $15.07 | +$0.02 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $10.14 | $10.14 | +$0.01 | 48% 343-365 (708) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.15 | $3.15 | +$0 | 43% 387-516 (903) |
Invested
$82.42
Value
$82.26
PnL
-$0.16
Record
99%
275-2 (277)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.75
Value
$18.77
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$15.95
Value
$15.95
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$15.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$10.14
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
343-365 (708)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
387-516 (903)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.