Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 90¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$194.61
$1.3
80.2¢ → 89.5¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $110.24 | $107.8 | +$11.96 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $49.35 | $23 | -$26.35 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $48.67 | $21.4 | +$13.56 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $16.71 | $16.89 | +$0.18 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $9.2 | +$0 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $7.42 | $8.22 | +$0.8 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $6.95 | $8.1 | +$1.14 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
Invested
$110.24
Value
$107.8
PnL
+$11.96
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$49.35
Value
$23
PnL
-$26.35
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$48.67
Value
$21.4
PnL
+$13.56
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$16.71
Value
$16.89
PnL
+$0.18
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$7.42
Value
$8.22
PnL
+$0.8
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.95
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$1.14
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.